- Lead. OpenAI’s annualised revenue run rate neared $70 billion as of late September 2026, according to a report by Axios, with enterprise revenue growing more than 100% since July — a figure that briefly became the most watched metric in technology markets after a rival report sent shares lower on Thursday.
- Fact. Enterprise adoption is the growth driver: OpenAI has now more than doubled its annualised run rate from the $40 billion Bloomberg reported in August, with commercial contract signings accelerating as companies integrate AI agents into finance, legal, and healthcare workflows.
- Stake. The revenue picture matters beyond OpenAI itself. It sets a competitive benchmark for Anthropic, which is preparing its own IPO, and it shapes the capital expenditure cycles of the hyperscalers who are spending tens of billions of dollars building AI infrastructure on the assumption that demand will match the investment.
The $70 billion figure, attributed by Axios to people familiar with OpenAI’s finances, refers to annualised recurring revenue — a metric that projects a company’s current monthly or quarterly revenue forward over twelve months. OpenAI has not published audited financials, and the company did not confirm the figure to reporters. A separate Bloomberg report in August put the run rate at more than $40 billion, and the Axios figure implies growth of roughly 75% between August and late September, driven primarily by enterprise contract activity.
The numbers are significant because OpenAI’s valuation — last pegged at $157 billion after a $6.6 billion fundraising round in late 2025 — had already stretched beyond what conventional revenue multiples could justify using the $40 billion figure. At $70 billion in annualised revenue, the gap between valuation and fundamentals narrows sharply, though the company still reported projected losses of up to $14 billion for 2026 as it invests in compute and headcount.
How the Revenue Scare Played Out
On Thursday 8 October, a report circulated that OpenAI’s annualised revenue was running roughly $20 billion below the figures previously cited in investor materials. The Nasdaq fell more than 1.25% in the session, with AI-adjacent stocks disproportionately hit. OpenAI is privately held, so the lack of public disclosure creates informational gaps that allow competing estimates to move markets. A later Bloomberg report, which cited sources saying OpenAI expects at least $70 billion by year-end, arrested the selloff and contributed to Friday’s tech rebound.
The episode illustrates a structural tension in the AI infrastructure build-out. The hyperscalers — Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta — are committing capital expenditure at unprecedented scales on the assumption that AI software revenue will grow fast enough to justify the spend. Any sign that revenue growth is decelerating feeds through to their own earnings expectations as well as to semiconductor names like Nvidia and AMD.
Enterprise Adoption as the Key Variable
The $70 billion figure rests on enterprise adoption that has accelerated since July. Enterprise customers pay higher prices, sign multi-year contracts, and generate revenue that is more predictable than consumer subscriptions. OpenAI’s growth in this segment mirrors broader enterprise software patterns: initial pilots converting to multi-department deployments, often with usage growing faster than the contract initially assumed.
The FTC’s ongoing consumer-safety probe of OpenAI, Anthropic, and METR over autonomous AI agents adds regulatory uncertainty to the enterprise picture. Legal and compliance departments at large companies have flagged the probe as a factor in contract approvals, particularly in financial services, where model liability for autonomous decision-making is still legally undefined. How the FTC resolves the probe — or whether it escalates to enforcement — will shape enterprise procurement timelines in the first half of 2027.
Anthropic’s IPO Stakes
OpenAI’s revenue trajectory has direct implications for Anthropic’s upcoming listing. Reuters has reported that Anthropic is targeting a Nasdaq listing in the period following the 3 November midterms, seeking a valuation in the range of $2 trillion based on its $965 billion post-money private valuation after a $65 billion Series H round in May. Research firm New Constructs has called it potentially “the most ridiculous IPO of 2026,” arguing that the required profit levels to justify the price are historically unprecedented. Whether public markets agree will depend partly on whether OpenAI’s revenue trajectory makes $70 billion-plus annualised AI software revenue look achievable at scale — or exceptional to one company.