- Lead. Israel holds its first general election since October 7, 2023, with roughly 7.3 million eligible voters choosing the 120-seat Knesset under the shadow of ongoing conflicts and domestic polarisation.
- Fact. A KAN broadcaster poll projected the opposition bloc at 52 seats and the pro-Netanyahu bloc at 50, leaving neither coalition close to the 61 required for a majority.
- Stake. A new government’s composition could shape the direction of Israel’s wars, a pending inquiry into the October 7 security failures, and Netanyahu’s own standing in ongoing corruption proceedings.
Polling stations opened Tuesday across Israel as the country headed to the ballot box for the first time since Hamas-led fighters broke through the Gaza fence on October 7, 2023. The vote was triggered by the collapse of the wartime unity government earlier this year, sending Israelis to the polls amid multiple active conflicts and an electorate that Al Jazeera described as “war-weary” and “deeply polarised.”
No Clear Majority in Sight
The pro-Netanyahu bloc — comprising Likud, United Torah Judaism, Shas, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudi, and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism-Zehut — faces an opposition alliance of Yashar (led by Gadi Eisenkot), the Democrats (Yair Golan), Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Together alliance formed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Both blocs have ruled out governing with the Arab Ra’am party or the Joint List, which could win up to 15 seats if Arab citizen turnout reaches 70 percent.
Analyst Joseph Mansour argued that the structural deadlock suits the incumbent: “the deadlock itself becomes the latest win for Netanyahu.” Mairav Zonszein of the International Crisis Group described the vote as a “last chance to save Israeli democracy” for opposition factions. A minority government or a third election within three years remained plausible outcomes entering polling day.
The Weight of October 7
Accountability for the security failures that preceded the Hamas attack is the central unresolved issue of the campaign. Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister with more than 15 years in office over the past 17, also faces active corruption charges he has contested since 2019 and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for alleged war crimes. Defeat would accelerate judicial exposure; a new government could establish the inquiry Netanyahu has resisted.
The Israeli Supreme Court’s late ruling reinstating Arab parties added a further variable, with the Central Elections Committee’s initial disqualification bid overturned just days before polling. Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh was nonetheless removed from the race after describing October 7 as “an important historical event.”
What Comes Next
Results are expected to begin emerging late Tuesday evening local time. Under Israeli electoral rules, the president tasks the leader most likely to form a coalition with a mandate to do so. With neither bloc expected to clear 61 seats, coalition-building negotiations could extend for weeks, a scenario the country has seen three times since 2019. The parties set to enter the Knesset also include smaller unaffiliated factions whose alignment will determine whether any government can be assembled at all.