- Move. Bitcoin fell to around $81,150, down 2.6% in 24 hours, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that September headline CPI rose 3.7% year on year, above the 3.6% forecast, and core inflation climbed to 2.6%.
- Liquidations. Total crypto liquidations reached approximately $944 million in 24 hours, driven primarily by leveraged long positions that were caught off-guard by the hotter-than-expected print, according to CoinGlass data cited by Delta Exchange.
- Rates. Markets moved to price in roughly a 54% probability of a fourth Federal Reserve rate hike at the October 28 meeting, up from about 22% the day before. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.33%.
How Crypto Markets Responded
Bitcoin had been trading near $84,000 in the hours before the September CPI release on October 14. The data hit markets at 8:30 a.m. ET, and Bitcoin fell to around $81,150 by afternoon, according to CoinGecko data cited by Analytics Insight. The 24-hour trading volume reached $39.80 billion, as traders repositioned across the market. This continues a pattern of Bitcoin declining when inflation surprises to the upside, reflecting the coin’s sensitivity to rate expectations that has made it act more like a risk asset than an inflation hedge in recent cycles. An earlier selloff had already pushed Bitcoin below $84,000 on separate geopolitical pressures linked to the Iran conflict.
The damage was broader across altcoins. Ethereum fell roughly 5.2%, Dogecoin dropped 4.8%, XRP shed 3.7%, Chainlink fell 4.5%, and Cardano lost 4.2%. Among the larger coins, Zcash stood out with an 11.7% decline. USDC and Tether remained flat near their $1 pegs. Total crypto market capitalisation fell roughly 3% in 24 hours.
The Macro Weight Behind the Move
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 4% on the session, its sixth consecutive daily decline, a sign that the CPI print rippled beyond crypto into rate-sensitive technology equities. The Nasdaq dropped 1.88%. Indian equity markets bucked the trend: the Sensex rallied 1.46% to 73,844, helped partly by a 1% drop in Brent crude, which had been elevated by Middle East conflict.
Analysts put the key support level for Bitcoin at the $81,000 to $81,300 zone, with the next meaningful floor near $80,000. A sustained break below $80,000 would expose the $78,000 to $79,500 range, which corresponds to levels that attracted buyers in August. Resistance above the current level sits near $82,000 and then $83,000.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $261.5 million outflow the prior session, ending a run of inflows that had provided a floor for the coin during September. Ethereum ETFs, in a contrasting move, drew $24.84 million in the same window, ending a ten-session withdrawal streak.
Fed Expectations and Crypto
The jump in October hike odds reflects the cumulative pressure on rates. The Federal Reserve raised rates once in September, its first hike in three years. Wednesday’s data gave weight to the view that rates may rise again before the year is out. Higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets including Bitcoin, and have historically weighed on crypto valuations when the risk-free rate rises sharply. The next Fed meeting on October 28 will provide the committee’s response, while the next CPI release on November 10 will cover October data and arrive before the year-end policy session.