- First time in 11 years. The Parti Québécois has returned to power for the first time since 2012, running on a platform that includes a referendum on independence from Canada.
- CAQ collapse. The ruling Coalition Avenir Québec, which held 79 seats entering the campaign, was entirely shut out of the legislature; its leader, Christine Fréchette, lost her own seat in Trois-Rivières.
- Minority math. With 59 of 125 seats—four short of the 63 required for a majority—PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will need to negotiate with rivals on nearly every major vote, complicating any path toward a sovereignty referendum.
Quebec’s October 5 general election produced a stunning reversal of the province’s political landscape: the Parti Québécois won the most seats in the National Assembly but fell short of a majority, while the governing Coalition Avenir Québec suffered one of the worst collapses in recent Canadian provincial history.
The Numbers
With all polls reported, the PQ secured 59 seats, the Quebec Liberal Party won 40, the Conservative Party of Quebec took 19, and Québec Solidaire held 9, according to the live results tracker Poliwave. A 63-seat threshold is required for a majority government. One result remains in dispute: the Liberals held the riding of Vachon by just 10 votes, and the PQ has formally requested a recount, meaning the final distribution is not yet certified.
The CAQ’s annihilation was the defining story of the night. The party that reshaped Quebec politics in 2018 and cruised to a landslide majority in 2022 was entirely absent from the results. Fréchette, who became party leader after François Legault stepped down in 2025, conceded early and said she took “full responsibility for the difficult result.”
What Plamondon Can and Cannot Do
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who has led the PQ since 2020, framed the victory as a mandate to put independence back on the agenda. But a minority government faces structural constraints: confidence votes, budget approvals, and any proposed referendum legislation will all require support from at least one other caucus.
The Liberals and Québec Solidaire have both historically opposed sovereignty referendums, though QS supports independence from a progressive standpoint. The Conservatives are federalist. That leaves Plamondon with a narrow path: he can govern on day-to-day legislation by negotiating issue by issue, but a referendum—his stated long-term goal—would almost certainly trigger an election before it could be held.
A Pattern Across the Americas
The Quebec result is part of a broader wave of incumbent collapses across the Americas this autumn. In Brazil, Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula da Silva heading into an October 25 runoff after first-round results upended polling forecasts, while Spain’s Pedro Sánchez called snap elections after a housing-policy defeat last week. All three cases reflect electorates punishing governments for cost-of-living pressures that have been compounded by the Middle East conflict’s effect on energy and food prices.
Ottawa has said little publicly since the result was called. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office issued a brief statement acknowledging the vote and said the federal government looks forward to working with the new government “on the issues that matter to all Canadians.” Whether that working relationship survives a sovereignty push remains to be seen.