- Lead. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, took roughly 47% of valid votes in Brazil’s October 5 first round, ahead of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at around 44.9% — a result that defied nearly every pre-election poll.
- Fact. Neither candidate crossed the 50% threshold required for an outright victory, sending Latin America’s largest democracy to a runoff on October 25.
- Stake. A Bolsonaro win would place a second family member in the Brazilian presidency, with consequences for trade policy, Amazon deforestation commitments, and the country’s posture toward the United States.
With nearly all ballots counted from Sunday’s vote, Bolsonaro received around 56 million valid votes against Lula’s 54 million, according to Al Jazeera’s first-round analysis. The 2.1-percentage-point lead overturned polling forecasts that had placed the 80-year-old incumbent marginally ahead, and it came with broader congressional gains for the right: both Michelle Bolsonaro and Carlos Bolsonaro won Senate seats, building a legislative bloc directly aligned with the presidential campaign.
Why the polls were wrong
The pattern resembles what analysts have called the “shy Bolsonaro” effect — voters who tell pollsters they are undecided or backing minor candidates but deliver a surplus at the ballot box. Third-place finisher Ronaldo Caiado and fourth-place Renan Santos together drew around 5 to 6% of the valid vote. If a majority of their support migrates to Bolsonaro in the runoff, his arithmetic advantage widens further.
Voter turnout reached 78.9%, a marginal increase on the 2022 first round, suggesting that the high-stakes nature of the contest mobilised infrequent voters in both camps. International observers from the Carter Center and the European Union electoral mission declared the process orderly. Pre-election surveys had shown the candidates statistically tied, giving weight to the argument that the underlying Bolsonaro support was systematically undercounted.
Lula’s options in the three-week sprint
For Lula’s Workers’ Party, the result is uncomfortable but not decisive. The party’s strength has historically been ground-level turnout operations, and Brazil’s second-round electorate differs from the first in ways that can advantage incumbents with deep organisational networks. Lula can also point to a run of improved poverty indicators and above-trend growth figures during his current term — evidence his campaign will push hard in the final stretch.
The key battleground will be Brazil’s north-east, where Lula won by large margins in 2022. Any erosion of that regional base in the three weeks before October 25 would compound the difficulty of overcoming a 2-point national deficit.
What comes next
Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court confirmed the runoff date of October 25. Campaigning resumes immediately, with both sides expected to focus resources on São Paulo state, which alone accounts for more than a fifth of the national electorate. Polling released after the first-round count will be closely watched for any sign that the underlying Bolsonaro advantage is widening or that Lula’s ground game is closing the gap. The final result will carry consequences well beyond Brazil’s borders, given the country’s role as a G20 economy, the world’s largest tropical forest, and a major supplier of agricultural commodities to both China and the European Union.