- Lead. Three senior Iranian officials and an Iranian insider, speaking anonymously to Reuters on October 20, said Tehran is deliberately prolonging negotiations with Washington to weaken President Trump politically ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
- Fact. Iran’s annual inflation reached 73.6% in September, the rial has fallen nearly 35% against the dollar since the US reimposed a maritime blockade in July, and seaborne crude exports dropped to zero by mid-September—meaning the stalemate is extracting a severe domestic cost.
- Stake. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and Trump having said the US will not strike Iran again before November 3, both sides are running out the clock toward the election, narrowing the window for any breakthrough deal.
Tehran’s Calculation
The Reuters report describes a deliberate strategy: Iran’s leadership calculates that Trump, facing a record-low approval rating with voters worried about fuel prices, is more vulnerable to the political costs of a stalemated war than to renewed military strikes before the vote. One official told Reuters: “The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory.” Another summarised the mood more bluntly: “Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war.”
Iranian analyst Saeed Leylaz characterised the approach as a form of indirect electoral interference: “Iran is influencing the US election without taking any unlawful action.” He added that regardless of the outcome, “nothing will go back to the pre-war status quo”—a framing that reflects the depth of distrust now embedded in both sides’ planning.
The war began in February, when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran following a round of talks that Tehran says collapsed under Israeli pressure. Iran cites an Israeli attack that derailed planned talks as recently as June 2025 as evidence of bad faith. Washington has consistently sought to include Iran’s nuclear programme in any negotiations from the outset; Tehran insists its “seven-day plan”—reopening Hormuz under Iranian control in exchange for lifting the maritime blockade, releasing frozen assets, and ending hostilities across all fronts—must be addressed first.
The Economic Pressure on Iran
The stalemate is not cost-free for Tehran. Annual inflation at 73.6% and a rial that has lost more than a third of its value since July represent an accelerating erosion of living standards for ordinary Iranians. With seaborne crude exports at zero by mid-September, the government’s primary hard-currency revenue stream has been cut off. Public patience, officials acknowledge privately, is wearing thin even as the leadership holds its diplomatic line.
That tension runs through Iran’s strategic posture: the political calculus of denying Trump a win before November may be costing the country economic pain it cannot easily absorb. Whether the leadership can maintain public cohesion through that trade-off remains uncertain, particularly if the post-election environment brings renewed US military pressure regardless of who controls Congress.
What Happens After November 3
Officials on both sides expect the diplomatic dynamics to shift sharply after the midterms, though in different directions. Tehran believes Trump may resume strikes once the electoral incentive to hold back is removed, and has reportedly been preparing for that contingency. Washington’s stated position—conveyed through Qatari mediators—remains that Iran’s nuclear programme must be part of any broader agreement.
The gap between those positions is wide. The Pentagon has been preparing options for strikes on Iran’s hardened facilities, including the use of Massive Ordnance Air Blast bombs, while Trump has explicitly delayed action until after November 3. Previous indirect talks on an amended ceasefire proposal ended without agreement. The eight-month-old conflict has now outlasted multiple rounds of attempted mediation, and the Reuters sourcing suggests Tehran’s leadership sees no advantage in changing that until the American political calendar forces a new reckoning.