- Lead. The United States has brokered an agreement between Syria’s post-Assad government and the International Atomic Energy Agency to remove stockpiled uranium powder from a secret nuclear site known as Site 99, which was linked to Assad’s clandestine weapons programme.
- Fact. Israel bombed the site’s entrances after Assad’s fall in December 2024 to block access, and has threatened further strikes if the material is not removed — introducing a hard security deadline into the diplomatic process.
- Stake. The yellowcake at Site 99 cannot produce a nuclear weapon but could be used in a dirty bomb, making its disposition a priority for both regional stability and global non-proliferation architecture.
Syria’s new government and the IAEA reached a formal agreement approximately three weeks ago on a removal plan for the nuclear material at Site 99, according to multiple reports published on August 12. The site is linked to Assad’s clandestine programme that centred on the Al-Kibar reactor in Deir Ezzor province — a reactor destroyed by Israeli airstrikes in 2007. The material at Site 99 is described by US officials as yellowcake, a uranium-derived powder. While insufficient to build a nuclear weapon, it is capable of being weaponised in a radiological dispersal device.
Israel’s Security Deadline and Turkey’s Shadow
After Assad’s government collapsed in December 2024, Israeli forces bombed the entrances to Site 99 to prevent any group from accessing the stockpile. Israel has since warned that it could not indefinitely tolerate nuclear material remaining at the facility, particularly after intelligence suggested Turkey had sought to help Damascus recover the stocks. Those warnings have given the diplomatic track an implicit timeline: remove the material before Israeli calculations shift toward unilateral action.
Disarmament and security sequencing have defined much of the Middle East’s diplomatic landscape in recent months, and the Syria nuclear file adds a non-proliferation dimension that extends well beyond the region’s ongoing conflicts.
Removal Yet to Begin
Despite the agreement, the physical removal of material from Site 99 had not started as of August 12. US officials said they “hopefully will be able to kick off the removal process soon and end it before the end of the year.” The IAEA is expected to visit Syria within days to begin the operational planning phase. Logistics are complicated by Syria’s still-fragile governance structures and the condition of the facility’s bombed entrances, which will need engineering work before extraction teams can operate safely.
Broader Non-Proliferation Stakes
The deal represents a rare instance of US-brokered cooperation with Syria’s new government, which has sought international legitimacy since Assad’s fall. For Washington, securing the removal of the yellowcake before a potential Israeli strike forecloses that diplomatic avenue serves both non-proliferation goals and regional de-escalation. The IAEA’s involvement provides international verification that the material has been properly accounted for — a precedent that proponents argue strengthens the broader non-proliferation regime at a moment when it faces pressure across multiple fronts.