- Stakes. Today’s Brazilian presidential runoff will determine whether the country’s first right-wing presidency since 2022 arrives under a new Bolsonaro — or whether Lula secures a fourth term at 81, cementing the Workers’ Party’s return.
- Fact. Flávio Bolsonaro took 47.03% in the October 4 first round against Lula’s 45.16%, defying polls that had shown the incumbent ahead — and every candidate who led after the first round since 1985 has gone on to win.
- Stake. The race carries implications beyond Brazil: US tariffs, Amazon deforestation policy, and the arc of a broad regional rightward shift all hinge on the result.
Voting is under way across Brazil on October 25 in the country’s presidential runoff, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro holding a narrow but historically significant edge over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The contest, set up when neither candidate cleared 50% three weeks ago, surprised analysts who had forecast a first-round Lula victory.
Who Is Flávio Bolsonaro
Flávio, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, entered the race as a lesser-known figure who has since redefined the Brazilian right’s prospects. He won roughly 56 million votes in the first round — more than his father received in either 2018 or 2022 — drawing support from a broad coalition that includes União Brasil, the Progressistas, Republicanos, and MDB alongside his father’s Liberal Party. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for leading the January 2023 coup attempt and is barred from office until 2030; his eldest son has sought to present a more moderate image while preserving the political base.
In a statement after the first round, Flávio said he was “truly happy with the result,” and pledged to appoint four Supreme Court justices if elected.
Lula’s Fourth-Term Bid
At nearly 81, Lula is seeking a record fourth presidential term after a third term marked by falling unemployment and poverty reduction — and a first-round performance that he acknowledged was short of expectations. Voters cited the cost of living and crime as primary concerns before the vote. Lula spent 18 months in prison on a corruption conviction before the charges were annulled on procedural grounds.
Lula cast the race in stark terms. “This is a battle between democracy and barbarism,” he said before the vote, while also warning US President Donald Trump against interfering in the election after Trump imposed tariffs and sanctions on Brazil during the campaign period.
What the Result Could Mean
Political scientist Carolina Botelho noted before the vote that Brazil’s electoral history since the return of democracy in 1985 offers a consistent pattern: the first-round leader has won every runoff. That statistical weight favours Flávio. However, endorsement arithmetic has not broken cleanly one way. Right-wing first-round candidates Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado backed Flávio, while Lula secured the support of several left and centre-left parties in parliament.
The right also dominated October 4’s congressional results, with Flávio’s PL winning 121 Chamber seats and 29 Senate seats. A Bolsonaro victory would mark the first time the family’s political project reached the presidency since Jair’s 2018–2022 term. The winner takes office in January 2027.