- Lead. Pakistan’s prime minister announced on June 12 that the United States and Iran have reached a “final, agreed upon text” for a deal to end their war, with formal signing now contingent on approval from Iran’s supreme leader.
- Fact. The draft agreement, as described by Iran’s Mehr News Agency, is a 14-point document that includes lifting US oil sanctions, Iran’s commitment to dismantle its nuclear programme, and Tehran’s pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days of signing.
- Stake. A concluded deal would end the most consequential military confrontation in the Middle East in decades, with direct consequences for global energy prices, central bank rate paths, and the political balance across the Gulf.
What Pakistan announced
Pakistan, which has served as the primary mediating channel between Washington and Tehran throughout the conflict, said on June 12 that it is “now working closely with both sides to finalize the next steps” following a breakthrough on the deal’s language. The announcement came through NBC News’s live updates and was confirmed separately by Pakistani officials to multiple international outlets, who described the text as the output of negotiations conducted through the Islamabad channel — the diplomatic back-channel maintained since the war’s early weeks.
Iranian officials acknowledged that “final stages” of internal deliberations were underway, with sources in Tehran indicating that a sign-off from the supreme leader represents the remaining procedural step. The Trump administration said signing was “likely in coming days” but described the timeline as “not 100% certain.” Vice President JD Vance is expected to represent the United States at any ceremony; Trump himself has indicated he will not travel for the event.
The announcement is a direct development from Trump’s June 11 statement — made after cancelling a planned US strike package against Iran — that the two countries were close to a historic settlement and that a signing could occur “maybe in Europe” within days.
What the deal reportedly contains
The 14-point text commits Tehran to the removal and destruction of its nuclear material and the formal dismantlement of its enrichment infrastructure. In return, the United States would lift the comprehensive sanctions regime applied throughout the conflict, and would withdraw the naval assets that have enforced restrictions on maritime traffic in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s 30-day Hormuz commitment is the provision watched most closely by energy markets and by the eurozone economies that have absorbed the highest inflation from months of supply disruption. The strait handles an estimated 20% of global oil volumes; its blockade has been the single largest driver of the energy price surge that pushed eurozone inflation to 3.0% in May and prompted the ECB’s first rate hike since 2023 last week.
What remains unresolved
All three governments pushed back on specific details circulating publicly, signalling that no element should be treated as settled until signatures are secured. Iran’s supreme leader has not issued a public statement, and factional divisions within Tehran’s political establishment — between those who negotiated and those who view concessions on the nuclear file as a fundamental breach — introduce genuine uncertainty about whether domestic ratification proceeds smoothly.
There are also practical obstacles beyond the political. Clearing mines from Hormuz shipping lanes, restarting idled export terminals damaged during the conflict, and coordinating the return of international tanker traffic will require weeks of engineering and logistical coordination regardless of what a signed document says. Fitch Ratings has estimated commercial normalisation of the strait is unlikely before late July even in an optimistic scenario.
Crude oil fell more than 4% on Friday on news of the text agreement — the market’s most direct verdict on the significance of Pakistan’s announcement.