The IMF’s July update kept its 2026 global growth forecast at 3% but raised headline inflation to 4.7%, citing opposing pressures from energy disruptions in the Middle East and AI-driven demand in technology-integrated economies.
Category: Economy
Posted inEconomy
US trade deficit widens to $77.6 billion in May as imports surge
The US goods and services trade deficit expanded by $23 billion to $77.6 billion in May 2026, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on 7 July, driven by a sharp rise in imports and a fall in exports.
Posted inEconomy
UK-India free trade deal enters force July 15 with Scotch whisky tariffs halved
The UK-India FTA takes effect on 15 July, halving Indian tariffs on Scotch whisky from 150% to 75% and opening markets across pharmaceuticals, cars and financial services.
Posted inEconomy
Warsh and Lagarde bury forward guidance at Sintra as inflation stays too high
The heads of the Fed, ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Canada agreed at Sintra to abandon explicit rate signalling, leaving markets to trade on data rather than guidance.
Posted inEconomy
US declines to extend USMCA, forcing annual reviews of a $2 trillion trade pact
USTR Jamieson Greer announced July 1 that the US will not renew USMCA beyond 2036, opting instead for annual renegotiations that leave North American trade in permanent uncertainty.
Posted inEconomy
Euro area inflation eases to 2.8% in June as energy costs retreat
Eurozone headline inflation fell to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, driven by a 1.7% monthly drop in energy costs — the first deceleration since the Middle East conflict began stressing prices.
Posted inEconomy
US payrolls miss at 57,000 in June as participation hits a five-year low
June 2026 payrolls rose by just 57,000, less than half the 113,000 consensus, as US labour force participation fell to 61.5% — its lowest since March 2021.
Posted inEconomy
USMCA’s first joint review opens as North American trade faces its highest tariff pressure in decades
The Free Trade Commission convened on 1 July 2026 to begin the USMCA’s six-year review, with Mexico facing a 9.8% average tariff rate and the three nations deciding whether to extend or let the pact expire in 2036.
Posted inEconomy
China’s June manufacturing PMI beats forecasts at 50.3 on AI export demand
China’s NBS reported a manufacturing PMI of 50.3 in June 2026, beating the 50.1 consensus forecast, driven by surging demand for AI-related exports amid the global infrastructure build-out.
Posted inEconomy
Japan retail sales surge 5.3% in May, giving BOJ room to keep hiking
Japan’s retail sales rose 5.3% year-on-year in May 2026, the fastest pace since November 2023, as wage growth and government subsidies powered a broad spending rebound.