For the first time in two years markets are pricing a Fed rate hike as Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting on June 16–17, with US inflation at 4.2% and no cut bets remaining for all of 2026.
Category: Economy
Posted inEconomy
ECB raises rates to 2.25% in first hike since 2023 as Iran war drives inflation
The European Central Bank raised its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on June 11, citing persistent energy-driven inflation from the Middle East conflict, with headline eurozone inflation forecast to average 3% in 2026.
Posted inEconomy
US inflation hits 4.2% in May as energy prices surge 23% year-on-year
Energy costs drove US headline inflation to 4.2% in May—the fastest pace since April 2023—raising the stakes for the Federal Reserve’s June 17 decision on interest rates.
Posted inEconomy
Five central banks in eight days as Iran-driven inflation tests policy limits
Five major central banks — ECB, Fed, BoJ, BoE, and Bank of Canada — convene in eight days this week, with the ECB’s expected hike to 2.25% leading the sequence.
Posted inEconomy
OECD cuts global growth forecast to 2.8% as Iran war energy shock deepens
The OECD’s June 2026 Economic Outlook cut its world GDP growth forecast to 2.8% and warned that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockage could reduce output to 2.1% while pushing global inflation above 4%.
Posted inEconomy
China’s 5% GDP growth masks a property slump and a youth jobs crisis
China’s economy expanded 5% in Q1 2026, meeting the government’s target, but record exports and the headline growth rate conceal 16.3% youth unemployment and more than 36 months of falling home prices.
Posted inEconomy
Bank of Japan set to raise rates to 1% on June 16, highest since 1995
Governor Ueda has all but confirmed a June 16 rate rise to 1.00%, citing persistent inflation and yen-driven energy shocks, as market pricing reaches 80% odds for the hike.
Posted inEconomy
US adds 172,000 jobs in May, more than doubling forecasts
The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May 2026, more than doubling economist forecasts of 85,000, while wage growth of 3.4% lagged inflation for the ninth consecutive month.
Posted inEconomy
Eurozone inflation at 3% seals the case for an ECB rate hike on June 11
Eurozone inflation reached 3% in April, sealing expectations for a 25-basis-point ECB rate increase on June 11 — the first increase since the bank’s recent cutting cycle began.
Posted inEconomy
Warsh’s first FOMC meeting, a four-year manufacturing high and Friday’s jobs report test Fed’s resolve
Kevin Warsh chairs his inaugural FOMC meeting on 16–17 June as a hot ISM manufacturing print, a bifurcated consumer and Friday’s May payrolls data land against an oil-driven inflation backdrop that has flipped rate-cut bets into hike odds.