Eurozone headline inflation fell to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, driven by a 1.7% monthly drop in energy costs — the first deceleration since the Middle East conflict began stressing prices.
Category: Economy
US payrolls miss at 57,000 in June as participation hits a five-year low
June 2026 payrolls rose by just 57,000, less than half the 113,000 consensus, as US labour force participation fell to 61.5% — its lowest since March 2021.
USMCA’s first joint review opens as North American trade faces its highest tariff pressure in decades
The Free Trade Commission convened on 1 July 2026 to begin the USMCA’s six-year review, with Mexico facing a 9.8% average tariff rate and the three nations deciding whether to extend or let the pact expire in 2036.
China’s June manufacturing PMI beats forecasts at 50.3 on AI export demand
China’s NBS reported a manufacturing PMI of 50.3 in June 2026, beating the 50.1 consensus forecast, driven by surging demand for AI-related exports amid the global infrastructure build-out.
Japan retail sales surge 5.3% in May, giving BOJ room to keep hiking
Japan’s retail sales rose 5.3% year-on-year in May 2026, the fastest pace since November 2023, as wage growth and government subsidies powered a broad spending rebound.
BOJ board members back further rate hikes toward a neutral rate of 2%
Bank of Japan board members backed continued rate rises and estimated a neutral rate near 2%, in the June 24 summary of opinions released after the bank’s historic 1% decision.
US economy expanded 2.1% in Q1 2026 but corporate confidence warns of a rougher second half
The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed 2.1% annualised GDP growth in the first quarter of 2026 on June 25, a rebound from Q4’s 0.5%, even as CEO surveys signal gathering headwinds ahead.
US May PCE hits 4.1%, highest since April 2023, as core inflation accelerates
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose 4.1% year-on-year in May 2026, the fastest pace in over three years, while core PCE climbed to 3.4% — its highest since late 2023.
US and India near a trade deal with a July 24 tariff deadline forcing pace
USTR Jamieson Greer completed a June 22-24 New Delhi visit with both sides saying a trade deal is imminent before the July 24 tariff deadline on Indian goods.
Fed holds rates and removes forward guidance in Warsh’s hawkish debut
At his first FOMC meeting on June 17, Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.5–3.75% and stripped forward guidance, with nine of 18 officials now projecting at least one rate hike in 2026.