CME FedWatch data shows a 38% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week, up sharply from 12% seven days ago, as crude oil crossing $100 adds to already-elevated US inflation.
Category: Economy
Posted inEconomy
ECB Holds Rates at 2.25% as Lagarde Warns Energy Shock Is Not Yet Fully Priced
The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, with President Lagarde warning that inflation will remain above target until mid-2027 as Middle East energy costs continue to feed through.
Posted inEconomy
US Section 122 Blanket Tariff Expires Thursday as Section 301 Phase Begins
The 10% Section 122 blanket surcharge on US imports expires July 24, as the Trump administration prepares Section 301 replacements with no statutory time limit.
Posted inEconomy
Trump Levies 50% Tariffs on Canada Under a Trade Law Unused for Nearly a Century
Using a trade law last invoked in the 1930s, Trump on July 21 announced additional 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods to take effect in 30 days.
Posted inEconomy
ECB Governing Council Meets Thursday in Its Most Finely Balanced Decision of the Year
With June eurozone inflation at 2.8% and growth at just 0.8% forecast for 2026, the ECB faces its sharpest hold-or-hike tension since raising rates for the first time in three years last month.
Posted inEconomy
PBOC Holds Rates for 14th Straight Month as China’s Economy Misses Its Growth Target
China’s central bank held lending rates at record lows on July 20 for the 14th straight month after Q2 GDP came in at 4.3%, the weakest reading since late 2022.
Posted inEconomy
Brent Tops $87 as Iran Escalation Refuels Global Inflation Fears
Brent crude settled at $87.20 on July 17 as renewed US-Iran strikes removed the prospect of near-term Hormuz relief, complicating the inflation outlook for the Fed and ECB at a moment when rate decisions hang on energy costs.
Posted inEconomy
US June Retail Sales Rose Just 0.2%, Weakest Gain in Five Months
US retail sales grew only 0.2% in June 2026, the smallest monthly rise in five months, as lower petrol prices dragged on receipts even as core consumer spending held up.
Posted inEconomy
Bank of Korea Raises Rates for First Time in Three Years
South Korea’s central bank raised its benchmark rate to 2.75% on July 16, ending 13 months of policy inaction as record chip exports push inflation above target and the won tests the 1,500 per dollar level.
Posted inEconomy
Fed Governor Cook Signals Rate Hike Readiness as US Inflation Hits 3.7%
Fed Governor Lisa Cook warned on July 15 that she is prepared to raise rates if inflation does not ease, with US prices running 3.7% year-on-year — five years above the 2% target.