UK real GDP expanded 0.6% in the first quarter of 2026, but the OECD has since cut its full-year growth forecast to 0.7% and raised its inflation call to 4.0%.
Category: Economy
Posted inEconomy
US consumer prices hit 3.8% in April, highest since May 2023
April CPI rose 3.8% year-on-year — driven by a 28% surge in gasoline costs tied to the Iran conflict — pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to the cusp of 4.5% and repricing Fed rate-cut expectations.
Posted inEconomy
Bank of Canada signals rate hike risk as oil-driven inflation deepens
Bank of Canada’s Macklem warned rate hikes are possible if oil prices stay elevated, a dilemma now spreading from Ottawa to Frankfurt and London.
Posted inEconomy
US economy adds 115,000 jobs in April, complicating Warsh’s rate agenda
The US economy added 115,000 jobs in April and unemployment held at 4.3 percent, giving prospective Fed Chair Kevin Warsh limited room to pursue the rate cuts he has signaled.
Posted inEconomy
US wholesale inflation hits 6% as energy costs and tariffs combine
US producer prices jumped 1.4% in April — nearly triple the forecast — lifting the annual PPI rate to 6%, its highest since late 2022, as energy and tariff pass-throughs both accelerated.
Posted inEconomy
Two shocks are reshaping the global energy economy at once
The UAE’s departure from OPEC on May 1 and the Iran war’s disruption of Hormuz shipping have arrived simultaneously, creating a price environment where geopolitical supply threats are pushing one direction and Gulf overproduction capacity is pushing another.
Posted inEconomy
Tariffs and tanker rerouting are redrawing the world’s trade map
The combination of US tariff barriers and Hormuz-driven shipping reroutes has added weeks to delivery times and billions in freight costs, with global goods trade in Q1 2026 recording its sharpest quarterly contraction since the pandemic.
Posted inEconomy
IMF warns Iran war and tariffs are choking the global recovery
The Fund’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook identified a new combined threat to growth: persistent US tariff disputes layered on top of a Middle East energy shock that has upended the low-inflation environment central banks spent three years building.
Posted inEconomy
ECB freezes rates at 2 percent as Middle East energy costs reignite inflation
The European Central Bank’s Governing Council held all three key rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting, citing upside inflation risks from the Iran war’s energy price shock while flagging downside growth risks from the same source.
Posted inEconomy
The Fed holds fire and hands the chair to Kevin Warsh
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 8-4 on April 29 to keep rates at 3.5–3.75 percent for a third consecutive meeting, as four dissents running in both directions exposed deep internal disagreement about the direction of the next move.