- Lead. Gold futures held near $4,408 per troy ounce on August 13 — a fourth consecutive open above $4,400 — after US producer price data came in below estimates, building on a CPI-driven rally that has pushed the metal up roughly 10% in a single month.
- Fact. July headline PPI was flat month-over-month and rose 4.7% year-on-year, both below economist estimates, while July CPI slowed to 3.4% from 3.5% in June — the second consecutive month of cooling inflation.
- Stake. Markets now assign only around 34% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, down from nearly 50% before the inflation releases, boosting a non-yielding metal that performs best when real rate pressure eases.
Gold December futures opened at $4,468.80 before settling lower to near $4,408 on Thursday morning as traders locked in some gains, while spot gold traded around $4,352 — still within striking distance of the fresh two-month high reached earlier in the week. The consecutive inflation prints are providing the most sustained tailwind for gold in months, with the metal now up nearly 10% from its July lows. One analyst cited by Investing.com noted: “It’s hard to see them hiking in September now that we’ve had two back-to-back months of cooling inflation.”
Inflation Data Driving the Rally
The CPI print released Wednesday showed headline consumer prices rising 3.4% in July year-on-year and just 0.1% month-on-month — the same annual pace as June’s revised figure and below the elevated levels seen in spring, when oil price surges tied to the Iran war pushed inflation higher. The PPI data released Thursday reinforced the picture, with core producer prices rising only 0.2% month-on-month against a 0.3% estimate.
The Federal Reserve has held rates in a range of 3.5%–3.75% for five consecutive meetings, with three dissenting regional presidents having called for a 25-basis-point hike. The back-to-back cooling prints have shifted market pricing decisively toward a hold in September — a development that benefits gold by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Oil and the Hormuz Variable
While gold rallied, Brent crude fell 2.3% to $86.97 per barrel on August 13, breaking a six-day winning streak as investors assessed progress toward a Hormuz shipping agreement between Iran and Oman. The easing of crude prices reduced one of the key inflationary pressures that had complicated the Fed’s calculus since the Iran war began in February 2026. Shipping traffic through the strait has fallen to its lowest level since mid-May, contributing to supply-chain disruptions that fed earlier PPI spikes.
What Comes Next
Analysts at TradingKey noted that if PPI continues to stabilise, gold could test the $4,500 mark. The more immediate focus for markets will be the next round of Fed communications and whether the two soft inflation prints are enough to decisively close the door on a September hike, or whether a new energy price spike — triggered by Hormuz breakdown — could revive tightening expectations and pressure the metal. For now, the balance of data is pushing in gold’s direction.