Bank of Canada’s Macklem warned rate hikes are possible if oil prices stay elevated, a dilemma now spreading from Ottawa to Frankfurt and London.
Tag: oil
Oil below $65 as OPEC fracture and demand weakness trump Iran risk premium
Brent crude has traded between $60 and $70 per barrel through May despite the Iran war’s ongoing Hormuz disruption, with the UAE’s exit from OPEC and weak global demand growth suppressing the price that Saudi Arabia’s $80 budget breakeven requires.
Two shocks are reshaping the global energy economy at once
The UAE’s departure from OPEC on May 1 and the Iran war’s disruption of Hormuz shipping have arrived simultaneously, creating a price environment where geopolitical supply threats are pushing one direction and Gulf overproduction capacity is pushing another.
The UAE quits OPEC after 59 years and sets course for five million barrels
Abu Dhabi’s exit from the oil cartel on May 1 removes OPEC’s third-largest producer and a member since 1967, freeing the UAE to exploit a capacity gap that has cost it roughly 1.35 million barrels of daily production under quota constraints.